The Race for the GOP Nomination

With Michele Bachmann and Herman Cain winning the recent straw polls in the race for the GOP nomination, and guys like Ron Paul proving to be serious contenders for the bid, it suggests that there is a shift in the political ideology of many Republican voters. With the rise of Tea Party and Constitutional Conservatives, the primary concerns of many voters appear to have changed since the last U.S. Presidential election. The voters, as a demographic, have changed, as well. No longer are Republicans seen as white, middle-aged, wealthy males. They are brilliant (and beautiful) women, people of all races, and a younger generation, as well. With today's youth standing to inherit the most bankrupt government, both financially and morally, in the history of the U.S., perhaps they sense the necessity to vote for a candidate who has worked a real job before entering the office of the Presidency, a candidate who is more of a business person than a politician, or a candidate who thinks outside the box. No matter what, for today's Republican, the ideal candidate that seems to resonate best with everyone is someone who is above all, a Patriot.

Out of the new Republican demographic, young voters could make the biggest difference. They obviously made a huge impact on the Democratic race to help Obama win the Presidential election in 2008. Young voters recognize, perhaps more so than ever before, that they are inheriting a colossal mess on every front, but also cannot identify with the staunch, stodgy conservatives of old anymore than they can re-elect a President who hasn't delivered anything he promised. Where at one time the traditional "Neocon" would stand a better chance in the running, today's young voter might lean more towards Libertarian views on the use of economic and military power, for example. To the chagrin of many far-right wingers, mainstream Conservatives will vote for a more common sense approach to spending money on things like the U.S. military presence around the world, giving priority to domestic issues. This is an obvious reaction to the economic collapse, and the jobless and homeless rates, for example. Because a great deal of Conservatives now align themselves strictly with Constitutional issues, the traditional party platform agenda of neoconservatives on issues like gay marriage will be seen as states' rights issues and not issues for the federal government anyway. So because the party seems to be full of various types of voters who mainly just want Obama out of office regardless, it appears the GOP nomination is completely up for grabs. If the voters take it a step further and want someone who brings something new to the table, there might be a surprise on the horizon, the Republican's version of "hope and change." Here is a breakdown of who is currently in the running:

Because Cain won the latest straw poll by a landslide, garnering 37% of the vote, and with Perry coming in second at just 15%, Herman Cain will get first mention in this article. After all, even though this is the first time in over a decade that Florida Republicans have held a straw poll, it proved to be a powerful predictor of Republican GOP nominees in the past. These included Ronald Reagan in 1979, George H.W. Bush in 1987 and Bob Dole in 1995. So in this regard, Herman Cain should be rejoicing.

If you don't know much about him, he is a Georgia businessman with a compelling personal story of growing up poor and making it big. He is a former mathematician with the U.S. Navy and had a career at Pillsbury, as chairman of the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, and as the host of WSB’s "The Herman Cain Show" in Atlanta. He is known mostly as a cancer survivor and a Godfathers' Pizza chief executive. He left his position with Godfathers' in 1996 to pursue politics without much luck. He ran for president in 2000 but dropped out. In 2004, he ran for U.S. Senate in Georgia, finishing second in the GOP primary. He still has a lucrative radio career and is also the successful author of books on leadership and politics.

One thing you can say for sure about Cain is that he speaks his mind.

Just this weekend, he called President Obama’s economic policy “bullsh**.” He’s made statements in the past that Planned Parenthood was formed to “help kill black babies.” He has come out strong against Muslims and Islamists, as well. He's ultra-conservative on social issues and immigration policies and supports huge cuts to the federal government. He also endorses a mostly privatized system of Social Security and a flat tax.

When it comes to running a campaign, he's not as good as he is in business. Several of his top aides have quit and there were rumors by former staffers of cover-ups. He has refused to name his economic advisers or to talk about foreign policy at times. He is considered to be good at coming up with one-liners in debates that evoke a lot of praise by conservatives, but insofar as having substantiative, detailed answers on things like policy decisions, he often comes up short.

Herman Cain is a great candidate who keeps the others on their toes. We shall see if he ends up moving up in the political polls over the next few months and people take him more seriously now.

Perhaps we now know why Perry missed out on the first televised debate. By his own admission he didn't do well in Florida last week. He warned Republicans not to go for the "slickest candidate or the smoothest debater." He did rank second, however, in the debate. One of the biggest strikes against him comes from his record as Governor of pushing a Texas mandate that would have forced young girls to receive an HPV vaccination. Since getting into the campaign, Perry has said that he regretted not bringing the measure to the Texas Legislature for review rather than issuing an executive order — but then he said that the measure should have been an opt-in rather than opt-out requirement, thus making him a flip-flopper. He also flip-flops on his support of gay marriage and legalization of marijuana.

He has definitely become a main target of attacks by the other Republicans. Mitt Romney, for example, has accused him of multiple position reversals, while Representative Michele Bachmann continues to sharply criticize him for the HPV vaccination mandate. Perhaps his biggest criticism, however, has come from Rick Santorum, who not only hammered him in the debates about the vaccinations, but also attacked him for his stance on illegal immigration. These attacks may account for the margin of votes given to Perry and Cain in the Florida straw poll.

Rick Perry is Texas’s longest-serving governor, having succeeded George W. Bush in 2000 and winning re-election twice. As the Chairman of the Republican Governors Association, Mr. Perry is popular with both social conservatives and the Tea Party movement, and became an instant top-tier candidate when he entered the race. He has a long standing record of inspiring economic growth, including his record of creating jobs in Texas, and of preserving social values.

Though he was lieutenant governor under George W. Bush, an often unknown fact is that there is little love lost between Mr. Perry and the Bush family. As such, Mr. Perry is somewhat unpopular with the G.O.P. establishment. Perhaps that also has something to do with the fact that he began his career as a Democrat, and spent six full years fighting for the "enemy" as a state representative. As the Texas Tribune has recounted, in 1987 Perry voted for a $5.7 billion tax hike opposed by most Republicans, and actively supported Al Gore’s 1988 presidential campaign. What could be more appalling than that to conservative primary voters? Of course, since defecting from the Democratic party, Perry has built a strong conservative record, but a party switch is itself a kind of flip-flop that could make voters think twice.

It will be interesting to see where Perry goes from here. One thing is certain, he better improve upon his skills as a debater and avoid losing anymore of the momentum he had just a few weeks ago.

National polls show him closing the gap with Perry, but he still came in third place in the latest straw poll. However, he's recently picked up a number of important endorsements like Representative Jeff Flake (R-AX) and House Oversight Committee Chairman Darrell Issa (R-CA). He is also the only candidate who is really competing with Obama in the polls.

If Perry had not beaten himself with his lackluster debate performance, Romney may not have been propelled forward quite like he has now with momentum clearly back in his favor. What Conservatives love about him is that he is fiscally conservative, seems to be knowledgeable on foreign policy, he is able to raise money, he is electable, articulate, very smart, and a seasoned businessman.

However, like Perry he has a history of flip-flopping. Just like Perry, he is a "once-liberal-turned-conservative," and he has flip-flopped on issues like abortion, gun control, and the use of ethanol. He is also Mormon, which many voters oppose. While he has increasingly leaned to the right since his time as governor, his embrace of a health care program in Massachusetts similar to one that Mr. Obama pushed years later continues to haunt him. His moderate stances on gay rights and abortion also concern right-wing conservatives. So he has some serious hurdles to climb in this race, as well.

It seems from the very moment that John McCain lost the 2008 election to Barack Obama, Romney emerged as the clear favorite for the Republican 2012 Presidential nominee. The Harvard businessman has been comfortably leading most polls since then. Unless Bachmann, Huntsman, Paul, and the rest start to make bigger ground soon, the liberal-turned-conservative former Governor of Massachusetts may just win the bid.

With job creation and the economy likely to be front and center in the 2012 campaign, Mitt Romney, the son of a former Michigan governor, is hoping that his background as a successful businessman and former Massachusetts governor positions him as the most qualified contender to jump-start the nation’s economy. He is frequently a guest on television programs and has a name and face many now recognize. As a side note, he is also the tallest candidate, and research over the years has always claimed the tallest candidate wins.

Santorum definitely helped propel Romney in the last debate by aggressively going after Perry on immigration and the Texas Governor's mandate for young girls to receive the HPV vaccine. However, he got hammered on issues about the economy and his support and praise of the leadership of Donald Rumsfield.

For those who do not know who he is, Santorum is a lawyer and a former United States Senator from Pennsylvania. He is a member of the Republican Party and was the Chairman of the Senate Republican Conference. He is considered both a social and fiscal conservative. He is known for his stance against amnesty for illegals and for constructing a barrier along the border between the U.S. and Mexico. He tried unsuccessfully to attach an amendment to the No Child Left Behind Bill to promote the teaching of intelligent design in public schools. He has also been criticized for his linking of homosexuals to pedophiles.

In his first trip back to Iowa since his fourth place finish in the state's straw poll on Aug. 13, Santorum was quick to acknowledge that his campaign is running on a shoestring budget. With Romney and Perry pulling in millions, it will be a huge challenge for him to remain a serious contender in the race.

Who is Ron Paul? Ask around and you either get "crazy" or "kook" or the complete opposite response, rabid endorsements by his supporters (who are also unfairly criticized and labeled the same). He is not taken seriously at all by the media, regardless of garnering a second place finish in the recent Iowa straw poll (with just less less than 1% of the votes separating him and first place winner Bachmann). If you watch the debates, what is interesting is that Ron Paul gets a huge amount of applause from the audience on his appeals for radically smaller government, a pullout of troops from American wars, and stronger efforts to reduce the country’s debt. For many voters, he seems to strike a cord on some major issues like foreign policy that could be dividing the Republican party's base. For the voters who are tired of the U.S. pouring all of its money into its military presence around the world, he is a breath of fresh air. For the voters who believe countries like Iran pose a serious nuclear threat, he is dangerous. It's all a matter of voter perspective.

The 75-year old physician and Texas Congressman bases his campaign on the theme of liberty, human rights and financial market reforms. With his vocal pockets of supporters spread all over the country, the Libertarian leaning Republican is and will continue to be one of the most controversial characters on the campaign trail.

During his 20 years in Congress, Ron Paul has established himself as an outspoken critic of American foreign and monetary policy, and is widely known for his Libertarian positions on a variety of political and social issues. He has been called the “intellectual godfather of the Tea Party,” and though his 2008 presidential run did not win many delegates, he proved himself to be an impressive fund-raiser, capable of tapping into a small but passionate network of supporters.

For all the ways the Tea Party movement echoes Mr. Paul on fiscal issues, it is not clear that such support carries over into the Presidential election. Many Tea Party Conservatives do not agree with his position of scaling back the U.S. military around the world, and many of his supporters shun the Tea Party movement. It is unclear how much the Tea Party support is needed, but what conservatives in general need to understand and appreciate is that Ron Paul's message about small government, individual freedom, free markets, and the Constitution is connecting with the younger generation in ways that the Tea Party has not been able to imitate. The majority of his base is young, and that youthful exuberance is at the core of sometimes in-your-face activism.

Supporters of Paul must not become disillusioned and alienated by Conservatives who are hell-bent on destroying the man personally, rather than debating his ideas thoughtfully. Supporters must stick to their guns if Ron Paul is to be nominated. The U.S. is crying out for a new generation of leaders to restore Constitutionalism after decades of destructive policies by corrupt politicians. This is what gives Ron Paul an edge. He never flip-flops on Constitutional issues and has a clear voting record as such. Crazy or not, it cannot be denied that because of that record, he is a true Patriot. He is about restoring the Constitution and economic health of the country and is a huge proponent of individual liberties.

After a 13-year absence from politics, Mr. Gingrich, the former Speaker of the U.S. House of Representatives and author of To Save America: Stopping Obama's Secular-Socialist Machine, Real Change: From the World That Fails to the World That Works and Winning the Future decided to throw his hat in the ring for President 2012. His poll numbers are improving over the past few weeks, but he has had a lot of problems within his campaign since the very beginning. He came in 6th place in the last straw poll behind the aforementioned candidates. However, he's in third place according to national polls at the moment, meaning he is still a definite contender in the race.

It interesting that Gingrich actually shares a lot in common with Bill Clinton, his 1990's arch enemy. While he was House speaker, together they balanced the budget, reformed welfare, and almost crafted a deal to save Social Security. Some are also saying that like Clinton, he might just be the "comeback kid." Gingrich stated, "Well, I may be that, but I may be more like a comeback grandfather." Ha....

While his overall poll numbers fall behind Santorum, the media seems to pay Huntsman far more attention than Ron Paul. Go figure? In the Florida straw poll he came in second to last place receiving just 2% of the votes.

He is credited for implementing a statewide flat tax, business incentives and private school vouchers during his five-years as Governor of Utah. However, Conservatives cringe at his support of cap and trade as a response to climate change, his backing of civil unions for gay couples, and his support for in-state tuition for illegal immigrants. He is also a Mormon. He is considered a dark horse in the race, but according to supporters,very capable of beating Obama in the coming election.

The Congresswoman from Minnesota and self-proclaimed "Constitutional Conservative" won the first debate, the Iowa straw poll, but it appears she does not have the money to compete effectively in other states. In a complete loss of momentum, she came in last place in the very next debate, according to the Florida straw poll, receiving only 1% of the votes. In national polls, she is lagging behind Perry and Romney.

The three-term Minnesota Congresswoman is the current chair of the Congressional Tea Party Caucus. Bachmann is perhaps the only candidate in the race whose ideology appeals entirely to the Republican base. She is fiscally and socially conservative, champions tax reform, works to cut wasteful government spending, and supports limiting the size of the government. She also is devoted to the repeal of ObamaCare, a legislation she believes is an example of government’s recent uninhibited growth. She defends America’s religious liberties and the importance of the family as the first unit of government. She also defends the right to life for all Americans, including the unborn.

Sadly, she's made some serious gaffs and is often known as the "crazy" candidate, even crazier than Ron Paul, and that's saying something!!! She's another one who was raised in a Democratic family, even volunteering for Jimmy Carter's campaign, but changed her party affiliation during college.

Besides a lack of funding, the resignation of deputy campaign manager, David Polyansky, and the redeployment of campaign manager Ed Rollins into a consulting role suggests that all is not well in the Bachmann camp. Her September poll numbers, hovering between 6-8%, show her at just a third of her post-Ames Straw Poll victory figures barely a month ago. Pundits have long cited the risks of Bachmann’s increasing tendency to move to the right, and it now appears that she may be holding her two top strategists responsible for her dramatic decline. It is certainly true that Perry's entry into the race has also hurt her a great deal. With a fledgling campaign and a reputation for making off-the-wall statements that damage her credibility, she needs serious help to stay afloat in this race.